A clear majority of Swiss voters oppose both initiatives due to be put to a referendum on September 27, according to the second poll conducted by gfs.bern for the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). More than 60% now say they intend to reject the neutrality and food-security proposals.
Support for the two initiatives has fallen sharply since the first survey in early August. If the vote had been held in early September, 63% would have rejected the “Safeguard Swiss Neutrality” initiative, up nine percentage points. Support fell by eight points, to 34%.
The initiative, launched by the group Pro Suisse, would enshrine in the constitution the principle of Switzerland’s “permanent and armed” neutrality.
Opposition to the “For Secure Food” initiative has grown even faster. The proposal seeks to encourage the production of plant-based food to increase Switzerland’s level of food self-sufficiency. Some 64% now oppose it, up 15 points, while support has fallen by 14 points to 33%.
Neutrality: the UDC/SVP stands alone
Almost every major political party, from the Greens to the Liberals, opposes the neutrality initiative. Their voters largely follow the party line: more than three-quarters of supporters of these parties intend to vote no. Opposition is strongest among Green Liberal voters, at 96%.
The Swiss People’s Party (UDC/SVP) is the only major party to support the proposal. Some 77% of its voters back it, though support has fallen by nine percentage points since the first poll. Independent voters have also shifted decisively: 59% now oppose the initiative. A month earlier, more than half had been in favour.
Opposition is strong in both German- and French-speaking Switzerland. In the German-speaking regions, 64% intend to vote no, up seven points. In French-speaking Switzerland, opposition has risen by 14 points to 63%. Italian-speaking Switzerland remains more evenly divided: 48% support the initiative and 47% oppose it.
The movement against the proposal extends across age groups, income levels, educational backgrounds and types of residential area. Even among voters with lower levels of education, previously more supportive of the initiative, 54% now oppose it.
Gfs.bern says that reversing the trend would require not only strong mobilisation among UDC/SVP voters but also a significant shift elsewhere in the electorate. It sees little evidence of such a movement.
Food initiative loses ground across the country
The food initiative has faced unusually broad political opposition. Parliament rejected it unanimously. Although parties on the left and the Green Liberals favoured a counter-proposal, none was adopted. All major parties ultimately opposed the initiative, with the Greens alone leaving their supporters free to decide.
Green voters remain the proposal’s strongest supporters, with more than three-quarters intending to vote yes, though that figure has slipped. Support among Socialist voters has fallen by 15 points to below 50%. Green Liberal voters have also changed sides: 52% now oppose the initiative.
Among voters for the Centre, the Liberals (PLR/FDP) and the UDC/SVP, more than three-quarters intend to vote no. Opposition among independents has risen by 13 points to 60%.
The regional picture has also changed markedly. The first poll found considerable sympathy for the initiative in French- and Italian-speaking Switzerland, where it enjoyed majority support. Since then, the yes camp has lost 19 points in French-speaking Switzerland and 16 points in the Italian-speaking region. Opposition is now the majority position in all three language areas, peaking at 66% in German-speaking Switzerland.
Young people and women, who had been among the initiative’s strongest supporters, have also shifted. Some 58% of voters aged 18-39 now oppose it, an increase of 18 points, as do 59% of women. Rural areas were hostile to the proposal from the outset; cities and suburban areas have now largely joined them.
The food initiative’s problem is not necessarily its objective. Several of its underlying aims command broad support. Rather, voters appear increasingly unconvinced by the means proposed to achieve them. As the campaign has progressed, they seem to have gained a clearer sense of how the initiative would work in practice—and many do not like what they see.
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