NFL Week 3 odds are giving bettors an early-season idea of just how valuable a starting quarterback is to the point spread.
In the case of the Chicago Bears, it’s a lot.
“You’re seeing the full move from Caleb Williams being out,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “Last week, we opened the Bears -1.5 vs. the Eagles on the look-ahead line.
“It moves six points the other way without Williams. So we now have the Eagles -4.5.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their midweek insights on the Monday night matchup and more, as we dive into NFL Week 3 betting nuggets.
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Chicago Hopes
Williams suffered a hamstring injury in the fourth quarter of the Bears’ 9-3 home loss to the Vikings on Sunday. He hasn’t yet been ruled out for Week 3, but as of Wednesday, he’s listed as doubtful, and reports suggest he could miss multiple weeks.
That could be a huge blow for a team that nearly reached the NFC Championship Game last season and started the 2026 campaign like a house on fire, in a 59-37 rout of the Panthers.
Now, the Bears are 1-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), with Tyson Bagent likely the starter vs. the Eagles (2-0 SU and ATS). And that’s if Bagent can clear concussion protocol ahead of the 8:15 p.m. ET Monday kickoff.
The line swung in the Bears-Eagles game after the Caleb Williams injury. (Getty Images)
The backup QB got banged up after subbing in for Williams vs. Minnesota.
Late Sunday night, Caesars opened Eagles-Bears at Philadelphia -3.5 (-115). The Eagles advanced to -4.5 Tuesday, on the increased chance of Williams sitting out.
“It’s one-way action toward the Eagles and toward the Under,” Feazel said Wednesday afternoon.
The total is at its low of 41, after opening at 43.5 on Sunday night and initially ticking up to 44.5. And last week’s lookahead number was 47.5.
NFL Rocks On FOX
In Week 3, FOX gets arguably the best team in the NFL so far. The Bills (2-0 SU and ATS) opened with an impressive 36-31 road win over the Texans, then followed last Thursday with a 41-31 home win over the Lions.
On the flip side, the Chargers (0-2 SU and ATS) are one of the bigger disappointments so far. Los Angeles opened with home games against the Cardinals and Raiders, who each lost 14 times last season.
Yet the Bolts were dealt upsets in both matchups. So Caesars opened Buffalo as a 7-point home favorite in NFL Week 3 odds, for a 1 p.m. ET Sunday start.
Bettors are noticing Josh Allen and the Bills. (Getty Images)
“Bettors are taking note of the Bills. Last Thursday night was very good to the customers,” Feazel said of Buffalo’s high-flying win over Detroit. “Right now, we’re seeing action coming in on the Bills. Buffalo has been really good offensively, and the Chargers fell well short of expectations so far.
“It’ll continue to be one-way traffic for the Bills in this one. The book is gonna need the Chargers plus the points.”
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is off to a 2-0 start, winning on Broncos -2.5 vs. Jaguars last week. In NFL Week 3 odds, he’s on one of the early-season surprises.
The Saints (1-1 SU/2-0 ATS) nearly upset host Detroit in Week 1, then knocked off Baltimore 24-17 as an 8.5-point road underdog in Week 2. McKay likes the Saints -3 at home vs. the Raiders, another early surprise at 2-0 SU and ATS.
“I’m going with the hot Saints,” McKay said. “This is the first true road test for Las Vegas, which had the majority of fans in Los Angeles last week vs. the Chargers. And this is a sandwich spot for the Raiders, with the Chiefs on deck.
“It’s the first of three straight home games for the Saints. I see a big effort coming against a Raiders offensive line that will struggle in the dome.”
Running It Up In Rio?
The Ravens and Cowboys are both 1-1 SU and ATS, but Baltimore has the far more stunning loss. As noted above, in Week 2, as 8.5-point home favorites, the Ravens tumbled to the Saints 24-17.
Meanwhile, Dallas rebounded from a Week 1 road loss to the Giants by rolling over the Commanders 37-20 as a 4.5-point home favorite.
Now, both teams head to Rio de Janeiro for a 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday showdown. Caesars opened the Ravens as 3-point favorites and moved to -3.5 Tuesday, where the number remains Wednesday afternoon.
Oddsmakers say that bettors are intrigued by the Ravens. (Getty Images)
“There’s a little bit more two-way action right now. But I still think the public is more intrigued by this Ravens team,” Feazel said, before noting the total might actually be more intriguing. “It’s two explosive offenses, both teams can score points. So we’ve seen some Over action.”
The Ravens-Cowboys total opened at 52.5 and remains there midweek. That’s the highest total on the board, two points clear of Chargers-Bills (50.5).
Sunday Night Fight
The Rams and Broncos both rebounded from blowout Week 1 losses. But Los Angeles (1-1 SU and ATS) was much more impressive, drilling the Giants 28-6 as a 6.5-point home favorite. Denver, a 2.5-point home favorite, had to rally from a 13-3 second-half deficit to beat the Jaguars 20-13.
In Week 3 NFL odds, Caesars opened the Rams as 2.5-point road favorites. And the line remains Rams -2.5 on Wednesday afternoon, for an 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff.
“It’s pretty much a two-way game right now, with a little bit more on the Rams. They looked sharper in Week 2,” Feazel said. “I would anticipate the public coming in more on the Rams as we get closer to game time.”
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
By Sunday, there’ll be countless six-figure plays on the NFL. And maybe even a seven-figure major wager or two.
For the moment, though, Caesars Sports noted a couple of five-figure bets by midweek, both on solid moneyline favorites:
- $20,000 Seahawks moneyline -280 vs. Commanders
- $18,000 Bills moneyline -335 vs. Chargers
As long as Seattle just beats Washington, regardless of margin, the bettor pockets $7,142 profit (total payout $27,142). And if Buffalo does likewise against L.A., then the bettor profits $5,373 (total payout $23,273).
