Ole Miss enters a pivotal Week 4 matchup and USC and Oregon go head-to-head for a Big Ten showdown. Week 4 is filled with multiple top-25 games and conference showdowns.
After a thrilling win over LSU and coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels hit the road for an SEC contest against Jon Sumrall and the Florida Gators. While the Gators recently joined the top 25, running back Jadan Baugh has something to prove in a chance to upset Ole Miss. As for the Ducks and the Trojans, the Ducks’ Week 3 loss to Oklahoma State makes its road trip to Los Angeles intriguing.
Additionally, No. 1 Texas heads to No. 14 Tennessee for another top-25 conference showdown. In a hostile environment like Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, can Texas hang on to its No. 1 ranking with a win on the road?
Here are FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt’s Week 4 picks:
Texas 30, Tennessee 27
Spread: Texas -4.5
Moneyline: Texas -198, Tennessee +164
Klatt’s thoughts: “This is a monster game … Home teams have been great in these big matchup-style games this year … It’s a thing. It is very difficult to go on the road and play well … it’s also the emotion that home teams can play with. We see this every week. Last year, Texas did not play well on the road … Home field matters, and I think this one matters. Arch has not lit it on fire this year … I know we all want him to be impressive because of his last name, but he’s got to take the next step, which is playing well on the road … I think Texas is much better at the line of scrimmage, specifically running the football, than a year ago. If that shows up for them in this game against Tennessee, then everything is going to be fine.
“On the flip side, I think it’s a must for Tennessee. It’s vital for Tennessee. They’ve done a great job of it thus far. Running the football, protecting their young quarterback. Remember, Faizon Brandon is just a young pup in this game. This is going to be his first, real action of real, SEC-quality-level play … A Manning in Knoxville in Neyland, that’s always fun.”
“I think Texas wins late…they win this game 30-27. I’m going to take the 4.5”
Klatt’s straight-up pick: Texas
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Tennessee +4.5
Michigan 13, Iowa 10
Spread: Michigan -5.5
Moneyline: Michigan -218, Iowa +180
Klatt’s thoughts: “The winner of this game is set up for … this just feels like a low-scoring slug fest. Doesn’t it? It’s got to. Both defenses are very good, although they do it different ways, schematically. It’s hard for me to see how Iowa is going to throw the ball in this game. We saw how good Michigan’s defense can be, namely in that Oklahoma game … Can Iowa throw the football? I want you to pay attention to the tight end for Iowa. Because that’s the best matchup you are looking at the Michigan defense, I think it will be almost impossible to throw against those corners, they play with three of them.
If you’re looking for the ways Iowa can not just run the football to succeed, but get the ball down the field, I think it’s got to be the tight end. The tight end matchup. Now for the Michigan offense, I think this is a really bad matchup for the Michigan offense.
“I think Michigan wins 13-10, but Iowa takes the 4.5.”
Klatt’s straight-up pick: Michigan
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Iowa +5.5
Ole Miss 35, Florida 31
Spread: Florida -3
Moneyline: Florida -148, Ole Miss +124
Klatt’s thoughts: “This is the most interesting line so far of the season. I think Vegas is trying to tell us something. They’re trying to get bets even on both sides, and they know everyone’s going to be in on Ole Miss after that emotional win last week. Having played and covered the game my entire career, I don’t see a scenario where Ole Miss plays well. They were way too high emotionally — there’s got to be a comedown from what Ole Miss is going to give us this week. I think Vegas is trying to tell us that. The line hasn’t moved, by the way.
“So you get an emotional letdown, a team that can run the football, and it’s at Florida. We know how tough it is to win on the road. With all that said, I can’t bet against Ole Miss. Everything in me wants to say this is a Florida win and they cover the 3.5. I think Florida’s up for most of the game, maybe by multiple possessions, and late, No. 6 Trinidad Chambliss throws a cape on his back and brings them all the way back. Because that’s what he does in the fourth quarter — go check out the numbers from our episode Monday, he’s exceptional.
“I have to take Ole Miss. It’s going to be 21-3 at some point, and guess what — he’s still there. Ole Miss is going to steal it in the fourth quarter. It’s going to be 35-31 Ole Miss.”
Klatt’s straight-up pick: Ole Miss
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Ole Miss +3
Oregon 45, USC 42
Spread: Oregon -3.5
Moneyline: Oregon -166, USC +140
Klatt’s thoughts: “Was Oklahoma State an anomaly for Oregon, or cause for real concern about their program? I don’t think that’s a trend — I think Boise State is a lot better than we give them credit for, and Oregon actually came back and played fine against them.
“Could we be worried about Oregon? That’s a possibility, but history suggests they’ve got more wins the last few years than almost anybody in college football. They get better every year, they’ve been in the top eight every year, they’ve been in the CFP every year, and they won the Big Ten championship. I don’t have that track record for Lincoln Riley and USC.
Will this by a typical, successful season for Dan Lanning and Oregon? (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images)
“What I do know is USC plays really well at home. That’s a different team than when they have to travel 3,000 miles. Oregon does not play their best on the road either, they’ve won at Penn State, they were in a close game against Iowa, they lost at Washington a couple years ago, they struggled in a weird game at Wisconsin. So now they’re on the road in a place where Riley and USC normally play well. I’m concerned about some of USC’s injuries.
“So which pattern wins out? Am I really worried about Oregon, or do I know under the surface this is probably USC? I think this is probably USC. We’ve got evidence this defense isn’t vastly improved. I know they got the pick-six against Rutgers, folks, but I don’t love it.
“Oregon wins this 45-42, but I’m going to take USC on the points.”
Klatt’s straight-up pick: Oregon
Klatt’s pick against the spread: USC +3.5
Georgia 24, Oklahoma 10
Spread: Georgia -13.5
Moneyline: Georgia -575, Oklahoma +425
Klatt’s thoughts: “I think this is when we finally realize, yep, Oklahoma is not going to be that good. This is what we were concerned about in the offseason — they had Michigan, and if they lost that game, they had Georgia and Texas coming up, and this team is going to be 2-3. I don’t know if Georgia’s going to be all that explosive, but I’ve got an inkling this team is better than we all anticipated … They haven’t played anybody yet, but Oklahoma is struggling.
“Last year I kept bringing up this concern for Oklahoma … This offense isn’t very good at all. Quarterback John Mateer has regressed. If they don’t get an explosive play, there’s no chance for them to move the ball down the field, and they’re not getting that explosive play against Georgia.
“Georgia’s going to win this game. I think after this week, we’re going to look up and say, okay, Georgia’s very, very good. Georgia wins this 24-10, and they cover the 13.5. There’s no question in my mind, and Oklahoma is headed for 2-3”
“Georgia wins this 24-10 and they cover the points.”
Klatt’s straight-up pick: Georgia
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Georgia -13.5
LSU 31, Texas A&M 14
Spread: LSU -8.5
Moneyline: LSU -340, Texas A&M +270
Klatt’s thoughts: “Both of these teams desperately need a victory. LSU is favored by 8.5, and they’re at home. I liked the fight LSU showed in the second half — that’s an easy game to fold up shop in, and they didn’t. The offensive line played well in the second half, and Sam Leavitt played better, although his play has got to improve.
Lane Kiffin’s return to Ole Miss was spoiled by the Rebels. (Photo by Gus Stark/LSU/University Images via Getty Images)
“Leavitt’s got to calm down — he and his opposing quarterback in this game, Marcel Reed, are both top three in the country in quarterback scrambles, and it’s way too quick with Leavitt. You can tell Lane’s telling him several times during the game, ‘Hey man, calm down, relax, get through your reads, know what you’re looking at.’ There are times it’s just snap, look, run, and when he runs and gets agitated in the pocket, he runs into contact. Not a recipe for success. That has to improve.
“Meanwhile, I think A&M is off to a rough start … Texas A&M is 115th in the country in yards per play. They’re not gaining yards on the road in Baton Rouge against LSU’s defense. I don’t see it at all. I think OU and A&M are going to be prime examples of early top-10 teams falling outside the top 10, and maybe even outside the top 25. A&M was in there at one point, they lose to Kentucky, and I think they lose this game too.
“LSU is favored by 8.5 and covers it, because A&M can’t play offense. LSU wins this one 31-14.”
Klatt’s straight-up pick: LSU
Klatt’s pick against the spread: LSU -8.5
Mississippi State 27, Missouri 17
Spread: Mississippi State -5.5
Moneyline: Mississippi State -238, Missouri +195
Klatt’s thoughts: “The cowbells are going to be out for this one — Starkville’s going to be all lit up, and I love it. I really like QB Kamario Taylor. I think he’s excellent. I’ve talked about him now for a couple of weeks, and I think this is a huge moment for him.
“Now, their defense, Zach Arnett’s defense for Mississippi State, went to that 3-3-5 look, which makes teams earn their way down the field … This isn’t a bad philosophical change. If you’re Mississippi State, make the opponent earn their way down the field and let your quarterback go play well.
“Missouri didn’t play well last week against Troy. They were struggling. That’s a week after an emotional win over Kansas in the Border War, but they benefited from a couple of short fields off a punt return.
“Mississippi State is favored by 5.5. I think they announce themselves here — I love the changes on defense, and Kamario Taylor is outstanding. I like Mississippi State in this game. I think they win this one 27-17 and cover the 5.5 at home.”
Klatt’s straight-up pick: Mississippi State
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Mississippi State -5.5
