1. 2QFY27 (Sep ‘26) Quarterly Preview
• Bloomberg Consensus:
– Revenue: ₹234.48 bn (QC: ₹185.07 bn | FD: ₹32.24 bn | Hyperpure: ₹11.77 bn)
– Net Profit (PAT): ₹2.80 bn
• *Goldman Sachs (Buy | TP: ₹385):*
– Reported Revenue: ₹231.3 bn (+70% YoY, +14% QoQ)
– Adj. EBITDA: ₹6.76 bn | Reported EBITDA: ₹7.41 bn
– PAT: ₹1.65 bn | EPS: ₹0.17
– Food Delivery NOV: ₹113.4 bn (+20% YoY, +5% QoQ) | Adj. EBITDA: ₹6.36 bn (5.6% margin)
– Blinkit (QC) NOV: ₹199.9 bn (+71% YoY, +17% QoQ) | Adj. EBITDA: ₹1.71 bn (0.9% margin)
• *Kotak – KIE (Buy | TP: ₹395):*
– Reported Revenue: ₹237.3 bn (+75% YoY, +17% QoQ)
– Adj. EBITDA: ₹7.17 bn | Reported EBITDA: ₹8.54 bn
– PAT: ₹2.93 bn (+351% YoY, +219% QoQ) | EPS: ₹0.30
– Food Delivery NOV: ₹113.1 bn (+20% YoY, +5% QoQ) | Adj. EBITDA: ₹6.43 bn (5.7% margin)
– Blinkit (QC) NOV: ₹204.1 bn (+75% YoY, +19% QoQ) | Adj. EBITDA: ₹1.92 bn (0.9% margin)
• *Motilal Oswal (Buy | TP: ₹430):*
– Food Delivery GOV: +21.7% YoY / +6.1% QoQ | Adj. EBITDA: ₹6.80 bn (~4.9% of GOV)
– Blinkit (QC) NOV: ₹210.2 bn (+22.7% QoQ) | Adj. EBITDA: ₹2.28 bn (~1.0% margin)
• *Morgan Stanley (Overweight | TP: ₹373):*
– Blinkit (QC) NOV: ~19% QoQ growth | Adj. EBITDA margin: +30 bps QoQ (~0.9% of NOV)
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*2. Full-Year Estimates (FY27E / FY28E / FY29E)*
*(Figures in ₹ bn, except EPS & TP in ₹)*
• *Kotak (Buy | TP: ₹395)*
– Rev: 1,050.5 / 1,434.2 / 1,783.0
– EBITDA: 36.7 / 66.7 / 95.4
– PAT: 14.1 / 34.4 / 51.4 | EPS: 1.50 / 3.60 / 5.40
• *Goldman Sachs (Buy | TP: ₹385)*
– Rev: 960.9 / 1,305.9 / 1,661.3
– EBITDA: 33.8 / 64.8 / 103.5
– PAT: 9.8 / 32.3 / 61.9 | EPS: 1.01 / 3.35 / 6.41
• *Motilal Oswal (Buy | TP: ₹430)*
– Rev: 965.0 / 1,449.9 / NA
– EBITDA: 38.5 / 79.0 / NA
– PAT: 18.5 / 42.9 / NA | EPS: 2.00 / 4.70 / NA
• *Axis Capital (Buy | TP: ₹405)*
– Rev: 971.8 / 1,384.4 / 1,822.0
– EBITDA: 36.3 / 70.6 / 106.1
– PAT: 18.7 / 42.4 / 69.2 | EPS: 1.90 / 4.40 / 7.20
• *CLSA (HC Outperform | TP: ₹506)*
– Rev: 983.8 / 1,492.9 / 2,064.6
– PAT: 25.9 / 78.0 / 141.5 | EPS: 2.50 / 7.50 / 13.70
• *Jefferies (Buy | TP: ₹415)*
– Rev: 986.7 / 1,489.4 / 2,148.9
– EBITDA: 26.0 / 53.0 / 81.8
– PAT: 10.3 / 30.1 / 50.6 | FY27E EPS: 1.07
• *Morgan Stanley (Overweight | TP: ₹373)*
– Rev: 960.0 / 1,290.1 / 1,603.1
– EBITDA: 49.1 / 75.6 / 112.6
– PAT: 8.8 / 26.3 / 53.6 | EPS: 0.91 / 2.72 / 5.56
• *Citi (Buy | TP: ₹385)*
– Rev: 947.4 / 1,299.9 / 1,652.2
– Adj. EBITDA: 29.5 / 59.7 / 87.6
– Core PAT: 32.5 / 57.9 / 84.6 | EPS: 3.49 / 6.14 / 8.87
• *Nomura (Buy | TP: ₹350)*
– Rev: 963.5 / 1,429.1 / 1,787.0
– PAT: 16.6 / 41.4 / 69.0 | EPS: 1.80 / 4.49 / 7.48
• *Investec (Buy | TP: ₹382)*
– Rev: 942.8 / 1,331.7 / 1,800.9
– EBITDA: 33.5 / 61.3 / 98.6
– PAT: 15.5 / 30.9 / 51.9 | EPS: 1.70 / 3.40 / 5.70
• *HSBC (Buy | TP: ₹340)*
– Rev: 948.8 / 1,319.4 / 1,680.6
– EBITDA: 42.0 / 62.9 / 81.4 | EPS: 1.74 / 2.69 / 3.49
• *BofA (Buy | PO: ₹340)*
– Adj. PAT: 12.3 / 26.0 / 60.8 | EPS: 1.27 / 2.70 / 6.30
• *Bernstein (Outperform | TP: ₹350)*
– Rev: 1,001.0 / 1,363.0 / NA
– EBITDA: 30.5 / 61.2 / NA
– PAT: 9.3 / 30.8 / NA | EPS: 1.01 / 3.34 / NA
• *UBS (Buy | TP: ₹305)*
– Rev: 923.3 / 1,385.1 / 1,863.2
– EBIT: 7.2 / 30.3 / 61.2
– PAT: 9.6 / 22.6 / 44.0 | EPS: 0.99 / 2.34 / 4.56
• *Macquarie (Underperform | TP: ₹225)*
– Rev: 840.2 / 1,027.0 / 1,233.0
– EBIT: 3.1 / 15.0 / 31.6
– PAT: 8.4 / 13.3 / 22.7 | EPS: 0.90 / 1.50 / 2.50
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*3. Key Segmental Trajectory (GS & Kotak Range)*
• *Blinkit (Quick Commerce):*
– NOV (₹ bn): 485.7 (FY26) -> 825.7–835.0 (FY27E) -> 1,155.9–1,162.0 (FY28E) -> 1,444.9–1,491.0 (FY29E)
– Adj. EBITDA (₹ bn): -2.8 (FY26) -> 9.3 (FY27E) -> 25.7–26.4 (FY28E) -> 40.5–52.4 (FY29E)
• *Zomato (Food Delivery):*
– NOV (₹ bn): 379.9 (FY26) -> 457.0–457.9 (FY27E) -> 540.5–548.0 (FY28E) -> 636.7–655.0 (FY29E)
– Adj. EBITDA (₹ bn): 20.2 (FY26) -> 26.2–28.2 (FY27E) -> 32.7–34.3 (FY28E) -> 39.0–41.6 (FY29E)
