Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten to dent Swiss exports. They have also sparked what Joseph de Weck, a Swiss historian and political scientist, calls an identity crisis in a country long used to navigating between great powers.
Mr Trump treats trade deficits as the source of almost every American ill—debt, deindustrialisation, even the opioid crisis. Tariffs are his cure. Switzerland runs a surplus with America and so, statistically, is cast as a villain, de Weck told SRF in an interview this week.
The tariffs are calling our foreign trade model into question, said the historian. The United States takes about a fifth of Swiss exports, but that market is closing. Asia, another fifth, is shrinking too. That leaves Europe, still accounting for 55%, as the only real avenue for growth in Swiss exports. Switzerland must therefore redefine its stance towards the EU.
For decades Switzerland prided itself on going it alone. Other Europeans, scarred by the second world war, built the EU on the insight that their prosperity depended on that of their neighbours. Switzerland learned the opposite lesson: national independence was the safest path. Today, argues Mr de Weck, that path is becoming an economic handicap.
The fusion of economic and security policy under Mr Trump makes life harder still. Escalation with Washington is risky; but concessions—buying American gas, AI chips or weapons—risk entrenching dependence. And, if we back down, Trump will demand more.
Either way, Switzerland becomes more vulnerable to blackmail. A better strategy, is neither to escalate nor capitulate but to pivot closer to Europe, following the examples of Luxembourg or Ireland, both EU members growing faster than Switzerland, said de Weck.
Deals with Mr Trump, sweetened by flattery or money, may ease tensions, but are a short-term pact with the devil. The EU itself struck such bargains because it needed to keep him engaged on Ukraine and defence. Without that imperative, confrontation might have been likelier, as with China, which showed that Mr Trump retreats when met with strong resistance.
Joseph de Weck holds a bachelor’s degree from the London School of Economics and a master’s degree from Sciences Po Paris and the University of St. Gallen. After completing his studies, he worked as a reporter for Bloomberg News until he moved to the EU department of the Swiss Foreign Ministry from 2013 to 2017. Since 2020, he has headed the European department at Greenmantle, a geopolitical and macroeconomic risk consulting firm. His father is the Swiss journalist Roger de Weck.
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SRF article (in German)
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