Fragile coalition
So far, the junior coalition partner — left-wing Sumar — has stood by the PSOE. However, with its majority depending on a broad array of parties including Catalan and Basque nationalists, the government’s stability is shaky.
That became apparent when the Catalan separatist party Junts, Sánchez’s most restive ally, this month proposed a no-confidence motion against him for the coming weeks, claiming he had failed to deliver on previous commitments. Junts, the party of the self-exiled Carles Puigdemont, is not expected to follow through on the threat. Rather, it is seen as an effort to squeeze further concessions from Madrid, such as improved financing for Catalonia.
However, Junts’ ability to block the 2025 budget, currently being negotiated, is seen as a more concrete danger for Sánchez.
“The real test will be the budget, that is the de facto no-confidence vote for the Spanish government in the next three months,” Orriols said.
Various parties have been using the budget as a bargaining chip. The unpredictability of his allies meant the prime minister was unable to approve the 2024 budget a year ago.
His former coalition partner, the far-left Podemos, is also making tough demands in exchange for its crucial continued support for the coalition’s majority — including breaking diplomatic ties with Israel and introducing radical housing rental caps.
These factors, when taken together, mean the threat of a power collapse in parliament is substantial.
“Preventing the approval of the budget for the second time in a row would clearly show that Pedro Sánchez does not command a parliamentary majority,” Orriols said.
