Home runs have made a comeback.
Consider this: After a 20-year stretch from 2002 to 2021 without a single 60-home-run season, we’ve now seen two in just the past four years.
And the 2026 MLB season is off to a powerful start as well, including a newcomer pushing the annual favorite.
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The Yankees’ Aaron Judge opened the year as the favorite once again, and once again, he is leading MLB in dingers early on with 14. But tied with him is the White Sox’s new global star, Munetaka Murakami, who is a 26-year-old rookie after spending the majority of his career in Japan.
Let’s check out the odds for who will lead MLB in home runs this season at Fanduel Sportsbook as of May 6.
Most regular-season home runs
Aaron Judge: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)
Matt Olson: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Munetaka Murakami: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Kyle Schwarber: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total)
James Wood: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Ben Rice: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
Yordan Alvarez: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Mike Trout: +2700 (bet $10 to win $280 total)
Byron Buxton: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Here’s what to know about the oddsboard:
The Favorite: Is there really any surprise here? New York’s Aaron Judge has led MLB in home runs three times in his career, including twice since 2022. He set an AL record with 62 home runs in 2022, followed by an injury-shortened 2023 season in which he still hit 37 in 106 games. He then led the sport with 58 in 2024, and last season finished with 53, the fourth-highest total in the majors. After opening the season as the +350 favorite, he is now still favored at -130. So far this season, he has 14 home runs in 128 at-bats, and he’s projected to land at 63.
Murakami-sama: Talk about making an extended debut. Murakami is taking North America by storm in his first MLB season, posting 14 home runs in 127 at-bats (he’s also on pace for 63). He has 31 hits on the year, meaning nearly half of his hits have been homers. Only Rhys Hopkins (18) and Aristides Aquino (15) had more home runs in their first 35 MLB games in the history of the league. However, despite his torrid pace, Murakami is barely favored to win AL Rookie of the Year, sitting at +160, just ahead of Detroit’s Kevin McGonigle (+185).
