After the World Cup group stage, things go from intense to do-or-die.
In previous years, the Round of 16 was the first knockout stage match, but with an expanded field of 48 teams— it is now the second.
Following the conclusion of the group stage, we now know all 16 Round of 32 matchups. As Brazil- Japan, Netherlands-Morocco and Portugal-Croatia are set to meet in powerhouse showdowns, other nations like Argentina (vs. Cape Verde) and England (vs. DR Congo) have much more favorable draws.
With that, let’s check out the odds for which countries are favored to win at least one knockout stage game and make it to the Round of 16, at FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 28.
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To Reach Round of 16
Argentina: -1500 (bet $10 to win $10.67 total)
France: -750 (bet $10 to win $11.33 total)
England: -650 (bet $10 to win $11.54 total)
USA: -600 (bet $10 to win $11.67 total)
Spain: -550 (bet $10 to win $11.82 total)
Germany: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Brazil: -310 (bet $10 to win $13.23 total)
Canada: -300 (bet $10 to win $13.33 total)
Colombia: -250 (bet $10 to win $14 total)
Portugal: -230 (bet $10 to win $14.35 total)
Norway: -210 (bet $10 to win $14.76 total)
Switzerland: -210 (bet $10 to win $14.76 total)
Belgium: -195 (bet $10 to win $15.13 total)
Netherlands: -180 (bet $10 to win $15.56 total)
Mexico: -165 (bet $10 to win $16.06 total)
Egypt: -165 (bet $10 to win $16.06 total)
Australia: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Ecuador: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Morocco: +130 (bet $10 to win $23 total)
Ivory Coast: +130 (bet $10 to win $23 total)
France currently -750 to make the Round of 16 (Getty Images).
Here’s what to know about this oddsboard.
The Favorites: France and Spain are favored to win the tournament, making them heavy favorites to at least reach the second round of the knockout stage. In 2014, France made it to the quarterfinals, followed by a championship in 2018 and a runner-up finish in 2022. The last time it failed to make it out of the group stage was back in 2010. For Spain, it lost in the Round of 16 in both 2022 and 2018, and failed to make it out of the group stage in 2014, after winning the World Cup in 2010. However, in this betting market, Argentina is the heavily favored to make it to the Round of 16 as sportsbooks believe Cape Verde has an extremely small chance of upsetting the defending champions.
The Host Nations: The USA and Mexico are in great shape to win their Round of 32 matchups after winning their respective groups. Mexico officially won Group A after sweeping its group, while the U.S. clinched Group D after its win over Australia and Türkiye’s loss to Paraguay. And lastly, after its first-ever World Cup win, Canada will advance after finishing second in Group B.
Mexico has a familiar relationship with the Round of 16, having lost in that round every tournament from 1994 to 2018 — seven straight tournaments. In 2022, Mexico didn’t make it out of group play. As for the USA, it made the Round of 16 in 2022, did not qualify for the tournament in 2018, and made the Round of 16 in 2014 and 2010. Canada will play in its first knockout game ever.
Canada will face South Africa on Sunday, Mexico has drawn Ecuador on Tuesday, and the U.S. will play Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday.
