PHILIPPINE inflation may have quickened in September as bad weather pushed up food prices, fuel costs surged and the peso weakened, with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expecting the rate to stay above its 3% target for a seventh straight month.
In a statement, the central bank said inflation likely settled at 6.4% to 7.4% in September from 6.1% in August and 1.7% a year earlier.
If the forecast holds, September will snap four straight months of easing prices. At the upper end of the forecast, inflation would be the fastest in three-and-a-half years. At the lower end, inflation would be the fastest in four months, matching June.
Either outcome would keep inflation above the BSP’s 3% target for a seventh straight month. The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release September inflation data on Oct. 6.
“Upward price pressures for the month are likely to be driven by weather-related increases in the prices of vegetables, fish, rice and fruits,” the central bank said on Wednesday. “Increased domestic petroleum prices and depreciation of the peso could likewise contribute to higher inflation.”
Lower meat prices and electricity rates may have partly offset these increases, the central bank said.
“The BSP will remain vigilant and guided by incoming data, particularly on inflation and growth prospects,” it said. “It will continue to assess the impact of latest developments in the Middle East and recent weather disturbances on the country’s inflation and economic outlook.” — Katherine K. Chan
