SBI Research expects FCNR(B) deposits to reach $65-70 billion by the end of the scheme. When OFCBs and ECBs are included, total mobilisation could rise to $80-85 billion, it said.
The pace of mobilisation has accelerated sharply since the scheme was introduced. The first $20 billion of overall inflows took 38 days to mobilise, while the next $20 billion came in just 14 days. In the 13 days between August 1 and August 13 alone, around $16 billion was mobilised, taking the cumulative total to $56.8 billion.
| Indicator | Amount / Detail |
|---|---|
| FCNR(B) deposits mobilised | $52.3 billion |
| OFCBs mobilised | $2.8 billion |
| ECBs mobilised | $1.7 billion |
| Total mobilisation | $56.8 billion |
| Expected FCNR(B) mobilisation | $65–70 billion |
| Expected total mobilisation including OFCBs & ECBs | $80–85 billion |
| RBI foreign currency assets recouped | $31.2 billion |
| Share of mobilisation recouped by RBI | 55% |
| FCNR(B) scheme deadline | August 31, 2026 |
| Swap facility availability | Until September 11, 2026 |
Source: SBI Research, August 15, 2026
RBI shortens scheme by one month
The RBI has decided that the swap facility for FCNR(B) deposits will be available only for deposits mobilised until August 31, compared with the earlier September 30 deadline. The window for availing swaps with the RBI has also been brought forward to September 11 from October 16.
Despite the one-month truncation, SBI Research said the pace of mobilisation means the overall corpus could still reach the projected levels. The report described the decision to shorten the scheme as prudent, given that the targeted corpus could be achieved within the stipulated period.
MUST READ: RBI limits FCNR(B) forex swap facility after $52.3 bn inflows; ECB, OFCB window stays open
The central bank has also already recouped a significant portion of the foreign currency assets associated with the mobilisation. RBI had recouped around $31.2 billion in foreign currency assets as of August 7, equivalent to about 55% of the total amount mobilised at that point.
Boost to banking system liquidity
The large inflows are also strengthening resources available to the banking sector. SBI Research estimates that the conversion of proceeds from the special deposit drive could entail flows of around ₹8-9 lakh crore, or approximately $85 billion at the upper end, thereby boosting banking-sector resources and systemic liquidity.
The increase in FCNR(B) deposits could also have implications for money and bond markets. SBI Research said the net-new FCNR(B) stock could reduce banks’ need for wholesale certificates of deposit, potentially pulling down money-market and short-bond spreads. This could eventually encourage banks to extend duration, given their role as major holders of securities.
The report, however, noted that the impact on the rupee has so far not been as strong as initially expected. Despite record FCNR(B) inflows, the currency has remained under pressure and recently stabilised around ₹95-95.5 after breaching the ₹96 mark. SBI Research said a calibrated RBI policy response would remain important for managing short-term currency fluctuations and maintaining financial stability.
MUST READ: ‘We don’t enter price wars’: Capital SFB CEO on new RBI fixed deposit rules from October 1
