If the vote had taken place on October 11, the initiative to restrict the sale and use of fireworks would have been approved by nearly 70% of voters, according to the first SBC poll.
Keystone / Urs Flueeler
A strong early lead for the fireworks initiative, widespread indecision over the proposal on the taxation of married couples, and no clear majority for initiatives on funding the 13th state pension payment and on easing war materiel export rules. These are the key findings of the first Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) poll on the November 29 nationwide votes.
The campaign ahead of the November 29 votes is only just getting under way, according to experts at the gfs.bern research institute that conducted the survey on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC), Swissinfo’s parent company.
Opinion-forming remains at a relatively early stage overall, and even more so among Swiss citizens living abroad, who are generally less exposed to political debate than residents of Switzerland.
Of the four proposals on the ballot, however, one appears to have already captured voters’ attention: the initiative to restrict the sale and use of noisy fireworks, known as the “Fireworks Restriction Initiative”. Three-quarters of respondents say they have already decided how they will vote.
If the vote had been held on October 11, the initiative would have been approved by nearly 70% of voters. With only 2% still undecided and the yes camp enjoying a 40-point lead, “the initiative is entering the main phase of the campaign from a position of strength”, according to gfs.bern.
The proposal commands majority support across all language regions and political camps. Backing is strongest among left-wing and Green voters (91% of Green Party supporters, 83% of Social Democratic Party supporters and 80% of Green Liberal Party supporters). However, a majority of Centre Party (67%), centre-right Radical-Liberal Party (59%) and right-wing Swiss People’s Party (53%) voters also favour the initiative.
Support is particularly strong among women, with 76% in favour compared with 60% of men.
More than 80% of respondents agree with the yes camp’s arguments that fireworks pollute the environment, cause distress to animals and increase the risk of accidents. Of these, safety concerns appear to be the most persuasive factor driving support.
13th pension payment funding backed by older people
At this stage, neither side has secured a majority on the proposal to increase valued added tax (VAT) to fund the 13th state pension payment. Only just over half of respondents have made up their minds, leaving “considerable room for manoeuvre”, according to gfs.bern.
Age is emerging as the decisive factor. While the no vote is clearly ahead among 18–39-year-olds (56%), support for the measure reaches the same level among those aged over 65. This is the group that stands to benefit directly from the introduction of the 13th state pension (AVS) payment, due to be paid from this December.
By contrast, income levels make little difference, despite the planned VAT increase. “Purchasing power does not come into play here,” notes Lukas Golder, a political scientist at gfs.bern.
Party affiliation reveals a familiar pattern. “The centre-left is cautiously positive, whilst the right is more critical,” Golder says. Sixty per cent of Social Democrat supporters back the proposal along with 58% of Green and Centre voters, and 56% of Green Liberal voters. Opposition is strongest among Radical-Liberals (54%) and People’s Party (68%) voters.
The arguments put forward by opponents are gaining traction. Nearly 70% of those surveyed believe that the shortfall in AVS funding should be addressed through structural reforms rather than higher taxes. At the same time, the claim that a VAT increase represents a “reasonable compromise” to finance the 13th pension payment is the argument most likely to persuade undecided voters.
Uncertainty over tax initiative
With around seven weeks remaining before the ballot, 55% of respondents say they would support an initiative to keep joint taxation for married couples and end marriage-related tax disadvantages, known as the “Fair Taxation Initiative”. Meanwhile, 34% would definitely vote against it. However, the relatively high share of undecided voters (11%) means voting intentions could still shift significantly, according to the institute.
Support is strongest among Centre Party voters (71%), followed by People’s Party supporters (64%). Radical-Liberal Party supporters are more evenly divided (52%). By contrast, only 40% of Green and Social Democratic Party supporters, and 45% of Green Liberal voters, are in favour.
The gfs.bern institute identifies an urban-rural divide, with support reaching 67% in rural areas compared with 51% in urban centres. But relationship status is the main fault line.
“Support is clearly strongest among those who feel personally affected,” explains political scientist Corina Schena, referring to people who are married or in a registered partnership. Within this group, 65% support the initiative, whereas only a minority of single people or unmarried couples would vote yes.
Swiss citizens living abroad appear more supportive of the Centre Party’s proposal than voters in Switzerland. However, political scientist Agnese Zucca says it remains too early to draw definite conclusions about this trend.
Familiar divisions over war materiel exports
The proposed amendment to the Federal Act on War Materiel, which aims to ease restrictions on Swiss arms exports to certain countries, currently falls short of securing majority support, attracting 49% backing.
Opinion could still move considerably. “Given the narrow balance of forces, mobilisation is likely to play an important role during the remainder of the campaign,” the institute notes.
Political divisions are already clearly visible. Support is concentrated on the right, led by Radical-Liberal voters (73%), followed by Centre Party supporters (65%), Green Liberals (60% ) and People’s Party voters (57%). In contrast, more than 60% of Green and Social Democrat supporters oppose the amendment.
Swiss citizens living abroad are less supportive of the proposal than voters in Switzerland. “This difference is not surprising given that Swiss citizens abroad often tend to vote further to the left,” says Agnese Zucca.
Age and gender differences are also pronounced, “which is quite typical for military issues”, according to Schena. While voters aged 18–39-year-olds are clearly opposed to the amendment, 60% of those over 65 support it. Men tend to favour the proposal (57%), whereas a majority of women oppose it.
Regional differences are also evident. A majority of voters in German-speaking Switzerland support the amendment, while opinion remains mostly negative in French-speaking and Italian-speaking Switzerland.
Edited by Samuel Jaberg/Adapted from French by Simon Bradley/rg
